خلاصة:
هدف: هدف اصلی این پژوهش ارائه سناریوهایی برای افزایش میزان انتشار مقالات علمی جی.سی.آر. اعضای هیئت علمی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد جهت برنامهریزی و سیاستگذاری بهتر برای آینده است.
روششناسی: این پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و با رویکرد ترکیبی-اکتشافی است. در قسمت کیفی از روش دلفی استفاده شده و در بخش کمی از روش دینامیک سیستم برای مدلسازی و تحلیل بازخوردهای مدل استفاده شده است. جامعه مورد مطالعه در این پژوهش، تمامی اعضای هیئت علمی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد هستند.
یافتهها: یافتههای پژوهش بر اساس بازخورد سیستم نسبت به رفتار هر متغیر نشان میدهد در پنج متغیر مورد مطالعه در سال 2030 مجموع سرانه مقالات هر عضو هیئت علمی با افزایش متغیر جذب دانشجوی دکتری، 62.36 مقاله، متغیر جذب دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد 2.31 مقاله، متغیر طرح پژوهشی 37.31 مقاله، متغیر فرصت مطالعاتی 77.31 مقاله و متغیر مطالعات مستقل 16.31 مقاله خواهد بود.
نتیجهگیری: نتایج بهدستآمده در این پژوهش نشان داد که اگر دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد بخواهد برای افزایش تعداد مقالات جی.سی.آر. اعضای هیئت علمی خود برنامهریزی نماید، بهترین سناریو جذب دانشجوی دکتری و پس از آن سرمایهگذاری در بخش فرصتهای مطالعاتی و طرحهای پژوهشی خواهد بود.
Purpose: Science production through the publication of articles in indexed journals is one of the most important outputs of higher education centers. Today, quantitative and qualitative evaluation of scientific articles is one of the usual methods of evaluating the research activities of universities. The managers of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad have always been concerned about the level of scientific production of their faculty members in order to maintain and improve the scientific status of the university. The publication of academic faculty members' articles in different years can be affected by various factors which identifying them can help the university managers in planning and policy-making in order to achieve the goal of increasing the growth of science production. Methodology: There are studies conducted about the influence of effective factors on the production of science, but most are qualitative and limited to the identification of the factors and have not focused on measuring the factors qualitatively. This research is based on a mixed-exploratory approach that seeks to discover the influencing factors in the number of publications of international scientific articles and the effective scenarios for its growth. This research has been done in two qualitative and quantitative phases. In the qualitative phase, using the Delphi method, which identified the key factors influencing the increase in the number of articles published, and in the quantitative phase, using the system dynamics method, which evaluated the impact of each factor and finally determined the best scenarios. Findings: In the first phase of this research, some influential factors in the publication of articles by the faculty members of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad were identified by reviewing the sources and using the content analysis method. Then, using the Delphi method, the identified factors were available to experts, which included 20 faculty members in the five fields of pure sciences, engineering, agriculture and biological sciences, behavioral sciences, and humanities with the highest number of published articles. In the second phase conducted using the system dynamics method, the data related to the factors identified between 2005 and 2019 were collected, and after determining their logical relationships and drawing a causal-circular diagram, their dynamic diagram was used to examine the extent of their influence on each other was drawn. The results obtained from the review of sources and experts' opinions led to the identification of five key factors and variables, which are: increase in the recruitment of doctoral students, increase in the recruitment of master's students, increase in research projects, increase in sabbatical leaves and increase in a grant. In the second phase, after obtaining the dynamic diagram and data analysis in the simulation model, the initial results showed that the average article of each faculty member in the target year (2030) with the increase of the doctoral student variable is 35.36, the master student variable is 31.88, the grant variable is 31.51, The research project variable will be 31.47 and the sabbatical leave variable will be 31.2. But by calculating the cost-effectiveness of each of the variables in order to have a better strategic plan by increasing the budget of each variable by an equal amount, the average articles of each faculty member in the target year was: Ph.D. student 36.62, sabbatical leave 31.77, research project 31.37, master's student 31.19 and grant 31.16 Conclusion: According to the obtained results, three scenarios were suggested as the best scenarios to increase the number of articles by academic staff members at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Increasing the number of doctoral students, both with limited financial resources and with regard to a limited budget, is considered the best scenario for increasing the number of articles. Assuming that the university does not have a policy to increase the ratio of doctoral students to faculty members for any reason, the best scenario after that is to invest in the sabbatical leave variable. Currency restrictions and the absence of faculty members in the university may make the sabbatical leave not among the priorities of the university. Therefore, in this case, the third proposal scenario-based to increase the faculty members’ articles on this research is to increase the number of research projects.
ملخص الجهاز:
اعضاي هيئت علمي دانشگاه ها، اين پژوهش در نظر دارد که پس از شناسايي عوامل مؤثر بر رفتار انتشار مقالات اعضاي هيئت علمي دانشگاه فردوسي مشـهد از طريـق مـرور پيشينه ها و اخذ نظر متخصصان ، مدل شبيه سازي اين رفتار را بر اساس داده هاي ١٥ سال ترسيم و با توجه به بازخورد مدل ، سناريوهايي را براي آينده ارائه نمايد.
لذا اين پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به اين سؤال کلـي اسـت کـه کـدام يـک از عوامل در سطح دانشگاهي بر انتشار مقالات اعضاي هيئت علمي دانشگاه فردوسي مشهد تأثيرگذار بوده ؟ و بر اسـاس ميزان هزينه و اثربخشي هر يک از آنان چه سناريوهايي ميتواند جهت برنامه ريزي و سرمايه گذاري در اولويـت قـرار گيرند؟ سؤال هاي پژوهش اين پژوهش تلاش دارد تا به پرسش هاي زير پاسخ دهد: ١.
چه سناريو يا سناريوهايي براي افزايش ميزان مقالات علمي بين المللي اعضاي هيئت علمي مناسب است ؟ فرضيه هاي پژوهش بر اساس عوامل شناساييشده در پژوهش حاضر که از مرور منابع و نظر متخصصـان بـه دسـت آمدنـد مـيتـوان فرضيه هاي زير را طرح و مورد آزمون قرار داد: ١.
پژوهش هايي که درباره تأثير عوامل مؤثر بر توليد علم صورت گرفته اند از روش هاي مختلفي بهره برده انـد کـه در هيچ کدام از اين آثار مشخصاً از روش ديناميک سيستم که براي ايجاد يک مدل شبيه سازي و به دنبال آن ارائه سناريوها و درنهايت برنامه ريزي و تصميم گيري منتهي گردد، استفاده نشده است .