خلاصة:
با در نظر داشتن اینکه صرفا عوامل سطح شرکت در بحران شرکتها دخیل نبوده و باید عوامل محیطی نیز در نظر گرفته شود، پژوهش حاضر ضمن در نظر گرفتن سایر عوامل موثر بر بحران در سطح شرکت مستند به ادبیات پژوهشی از متغیرهای نمایانگر سطح اقتصادی کلان نیز استفاده و صدق یا عدم صدق تئوری چرخه عمر شرکت در زمینه پیش بینی بحران نیز مورد کنکاش قرار میگیرد. این تحقیق ضمن بکارگیری اطلاعات 122 شرکت طی 10 سال (مجموعا 1، 220 سال – شرکت) انجام و روش آماری استنباطی مورد استفاده از آن را رگرسیون تابلویی (پنل) تشکیل میدهد. مدل پژوهش در دو بازه زمانی مربوط به پیشاتحریم و پساتحریم مورد آزمون قرار گرفته و نتایج آن با یکدیگر مقایسه شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان میدهد مرحله چرخه عمر واحد تجاری با بحران در سطح شرکت (با بکارگری هر دو شاخص زد آلتمن و شاخص ماده 141 قانون تجارت) ارتباط معکوس داشته و کیفیت و سطح ارتباط عوامل سطح شرکت و اقتصادی کلان با بحران در سطح شرکت در دورههای پیشاتحریم متفاوت از دورههای پساتحریم است، به شکلی ضریب توضیحدهندگی متغیر شاخص چرخه عمر در دوره پسا تحریم بیشتر از دوره پیشا تحریم است. مطابق یافتههای پژوهش، ارتباطی معکوس بین بحران در سطح شرکت با مرحله چرخه عمر وجود داشته و این ارتباط در دوره پسا تحریم بیش از دوره پیشا تحریم است، به شکلی که شرکتهای آسیبپذیر در تئوری در چرخه عمر دو دوره پسا تحریم آسیبپذیر تر مینمایند.
Reviewing the research streams and literature shows that the ability to predict a financial crisis in past
research is based on identification and examination of influential factors at company level. Although
the environmental and institutional factors should be taken into account. Therefore, our research, with
regard to other factors and their effects, has been examined and proved at company level, and used
macroeconomic factors too. On the other hand, life cycle theory is one of most cited notions for
explaining the crisis in capital markets, so we aim to test its validity in our economy too. Our study
examines verification of life cycle theory in crisis prediction. Finally, the research model is tested in
both pre-sanction and after-sanction time periods and results are compared with each other. Our
research has been done using a sample of 122 companies during a 10-year time period from 2012 to
2022(1,220 observations). The main statistical method of our research consists of multi variable
regression in a panel setting. We have used Premise statistical tests to determine the setting which our
model should be estimated in. Our primary variables of interest are crises (at company level and life
cycle phase). We use Z Altman and 141's Iranian Commerce Las Index as the proxy for Crisis
measurement. The macroeconomic variables are captured at country level. We're aiming to compare the
relationship between our variables in the pre and past sanction time period, so the model has been
estimated separately in the pre and past sanction time range. Our findings show a significant
relationship between both the company-level crisis and the life cycle phase. The significant reverse
relationship between the company crisis and the life cycle phase (in presence of macroeconomic
indicators) is valid using both crisis measures (Z Altman and 141's Iranian Commerce law). Descriptive
statistics show a critical range that shows our sample of companies that are suffering from crises at
company level. Also, we find that the quantity and quality of the relationship is different in pre and
post-sanction time ranges, in the way that the coefficient of life cycle phase in our model is increased
from .0579 (in the pre-sanction time period) to .0972 (in the past sanction time period). According to
our findings, there is a negative relationship between the life cycle and a crisis. In other words, the life
cycle theory is valid in Iranian companies. Furthermore, we can infer that the relationship has been
boosted in the past sanction time range. The latter finding can be considered as a sign of increased
explanation of life cycle theory in periods of sanction time the period. The main limitations of our
research the lack of data for unlisted large companies and the shortness of the past sanction time period.