خلاصة:
تغییر اقلیم تأثیر بسزایی بر کشاورزی بهویژه قشر کمدرآمد جامعه دارد. سازگاری مؤثر میتواند انعطافپذیری بخش کشاورزی و سطح اطمینان امنیت غذایی را درمقابل تغییر آبوهوا افزایش دهد؛ اما کشاورزان بهطور معمول، بهدلیل طیف گستردهای از بازدارندهها در انجامدادن رفتارهای سازگاری موفق نیستند. هدف از پژوهش حاضر مطالعه و مقایسۀ ادراک کشاورزان و کارشناسان دولتی از تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی شهرستان رستم استان فارس و بررسی تأثیر آن بر کشاورزی و سازگاری با روندهای مشاهدهشده، است. در این پژوهش برای اولویتبندی راهبردهای سازگار با تغییر اقلیم از شاخص راهبردهای سازگاری (ASI)، برای جمعآوری پاسخهای کشاورزان (370 نفر) و کارشناسان (15 نفر) از روش نمونهگیری کرجسی و مورگان استفاده و درنهایت، اعتبار پاسخها نیز با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تأیید شده است. یافتهها نشان داد که کارشناسان اصلیترین شواهد و اثرهای تغییر اقلیم را در منطقه بهخوبی درک کردهاند؛ اما برای کشاورزان تغییرات هیدرواقلیمی منابع آبی و بارش ملموستر بوده است؛ زیرا آنها معتقدند که این تغییرات بر درآمدشان تأثیر مستقیم داشته است. به همین دلیل، محققان در بخش بزرگی از جامعۀ مطالعهشده استراتژی سازگاری صرفهجویی در آبیاری با مدرنسازی را انتخاب کردند. تحلیل واریانس با استفاده از روش ANOVA نشان داد که بین دیدگاه جامعۀ محلی و کارشناسان دولت تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد که این موضوع میتواند یکی از موانع اجرای راهبردهای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم در منطقه باشد. عملکرد بهینۀ سیاستهای سازندۀ سازگاری علاوهبر اولویتبندی و ایجاد آگاهی، نیازمند هماهنگی (بهخصوص با رویکرد مشارکتی) و غلبه بر تعارضات بین جامعۀ محلی و مقامات دولتی است.
AbstractClimate change has had a significant impact on agriculture, especially in the low-income segment of society. Effective adaptation can increase the resilience of the agricultural sector and the level of food security in the face of climate change. The present study investigated the perceptions of farmers and government experts regarding climate change in the agricultural sector of Rostam City, Fars Province, its effect on agriculture, and adaptation to the observed trends. The adaptation strategy index (ASI) was used to prioritize strategies adapted to climate change, and the Krejcie and Morgan sampling method was used to collect responses from farmers (370 people) and experts (15 people). The validity of the answers was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The findings showed that the experts understood the main evidence and effects of climate change in the region. However, for farmers, hydro-climatic changes in water resources and precipitation were more tangible. They believed that this had a direct impact on income. Therefore, a large part of the studied community chose an adaptive strategy to save irrigation through modernization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there was a significant difference between the views of the local community and government experts. This issue can be an obstacle to the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the region. In addition to prioritizing and creating awareness, the optimal performance of adaptive policies requires coordination, preferably through a collaborative approach, and overcoming conflicts between local communities and government authorities.Keywords: Climate Change, Adaptation, Farmers, Experts, Rostam City. IntroductionClimate change has challenged the worldwide production of agricultural products (Ayyogari et al., 2014; Bisbis, et al., 2018; Gruda et al., 2019; Morel & Cartau, 2023; Van Tilburg & Hudson, 2022). The most important result is damage to the income and livelihood of farmers in the agricultural sector and jeopardizing food security (Tohidimoghadam et al., 2023; Taheri et al., 2022). Adapting to climate change is one of the latest solutions to the effects of climate change on agriculture. Understanding and changing appropriate behaviors are the most important prerequisites for effective adaptation (Deressa et al., 2009). Owing to a wide range of constraints, farmers are not usually successful in adopting adaptive behaviors. In this research, Rostam City is studied as one of the major production centers of strategic agricultural products in the Fars Province. According to a study conducted by Bazyar and Ahmadvand (2017), the most important obstacles in the development of the agricultural sector of Rostam City are economic, social, and facility factors and limited access to water. To accelerate the adoption of adaptation methods, reduce vulnerability, and increase resilience against climatic hazards, coordination between the views of farmers and relevant officials is very important. The purpose of this research is to study the opinions of local farmers and experts in the agricultural sector regarding the effect of climate change on agricultural products and adaptability to it, and to measure the degree of conformity of the opinions of these two groups. Materials and MethodsThe opinions of 370 farmers and 15 experts in Rostam were studied using a self-made questionnaire to examine their views regarding climate change adaptation strategies. Each questionnaire included three main parts: understanding the concept of climate change, understanding the effects of climate change, and strategies to adapt to climate change. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to assess the reliability of the collected data. The adaptation strategy index (ASI) was used to rank the importance of adaptation strategies to climate change. A two-way ANOVA was used to compare the opinions of the two communities of farmers and relevant experts. This statistical model was used to analyze the average differences between the different groups of data. Research FindingsThe results of the analysis showed that all experts agreed on the issues of temperature increase, drought, and decrease in rainfall and drop in underground and surface water. Only 13.4% disagreed with the dust factor. However, regarding the opinions of farmers, more than 99% considered drought and a decrease in precipitation, approximately 95% decrease in surface water, 89% increase in temperature, and 84% increase in the number of days with dust as effective indicators for understanding climate change. More than 93% of the experts agreed that the cultivated area and income of villagers from the agricultural sector decreased. Approximately 86% of the expert community stated that pests increased, and the level of crop yield decreased. The abandonment of agricultural jobs occurred from the viewpoint of 80% of the experts. Among the respondents, approximately 77% believed that pests increased, and villagers abandoned farming. More than 80 percent believed that the level of cultivation, yield, and income from agriculture decreased. The modernization of irrigation in both societies was known as the most important measure in adapting to climate change. Although migration was the least important strategy for adapting to climate change in both societies, it ranked ninth from the point of view of experts and eleventh from the point of view of farmers. According to the ANOVA results, the views of farmers and experts regarding the realization of climate change, understanding the effects of climate change, and adaptation strategies were different. These differences could be due to the lack of sufficient training of farmers and technical technicians, accurate and practical planning and transparency of programs, and the existence of strong fluctuations in economic variables in the local community. Discussion of Results and ConclusionThe results of the field investigations showed that the drought and decrease in rainfall were concrete events in the understanding of climate change for farmers, who considered the most important result to be a decrease in income. In addition, they reached a level of awareness that the crises caused by global warming made it impossible to achieve sustainable development using traditional approaches, and adapting to climate change and increasing the resilience of new approaches are alternatives. The modernization of irrigation was introduced as the most common implementation method for adapting to climate change. The difference between the attitudes of the local community and government experts is an important challenge in the implementation of climate change adaptation and resilience projects. This issue leads to the non-alignment of policies and a lack of coordination between organizations. Reducing the damage caused by climate change also requires the awareness, understanding, and convergence of strategies at the community level. Therefore, the prerequisite for the implementation of climate change adaptation projects, in addition to education and promotion, is building a sense of trust and overcoming conflicts between the local community and government officials.
ملخص الجهاز:
101 جدول ٣: راهبردهاي سازگاري با تغيير اقليم و رتبه بندي آنها با شاخص ASI ازديدگاه بهره برداران کشاورزي و کارشناسان شهرستان رستم Table 3: Adaptation strategies to climate change and their ranking with ASI index from the viewpoint of farmers and experts of Rostam city زياد متوسط کم ناچيز ASI رتبه راهبردهاي کارشناس کشاورز کارشناس کشاورز کارشناس کشاورز کارشناس کشاورز کارشناس کشاورز کارشناس کشاورز سازگاري با تغيير اقليم مدرن سازي ٤٦/٦٦ ٢٧/٣٠ ٥٣/٣٤ ٣٧/٥٦ ٠ 9/45 0 22/72 1 1 649 37 آبياري (باراني و قطره اي) استفاده از ٤٦/٦٦ ٢١/٩٦ ٥٣/٣٤ ٣٧/٦٣ 0 16/07 0 24/34 2 1 580 37 ارقام مقاوم به خشکي وگرما جابه جايي ٤٠ 23/78 60 26/48 0 18/39 0 31/35 528 36 3 2 تاريخ کشت تغيير الگوي ٣٣/٣٣ ٢٠/٨٢ ٥٣/٣٥ ٣١/٠٨ ٦/٦٦ ١٤/٠٥ ٦/٦٦ ٣٤/٠٥ 513 32 4 3 کشت توسعۀ ١٣/٣٤ ١٨/٩٣ 80 28/1 0 9/73 43/24 6/66 454 30 5 4 باغداري توسعۀ کشت ٢٠ 18/64 60 36/75 13/34 22/99 6/66 21/62 452 28 6 5 گلخانه اي توسعۀ ٢٠ 19/45 40 48/37 26/67 11/91 13/33 20/27 418 23 7 6 دامداري و دامپروري کشت ٠ 12/97 60 6/66 25/48 45/75 33/34 15/8 390 19 8 7 مخلوط (کشت چندمحصول ) تغيير شغل از ٦/٦٦ ١٣/٧٨ ٣٣/٣٥ ١٧/٠٤ ١٣/٣٣ ١٧/٨٣ ٤٦/٦٦ ٥١/٣٥ 345 15 9 8 کشاورزي به خدمات و صنعت کشت گياهان ١٣/٣٣ ١٠/٢٧ ٢٦/٦٨ ١٧/٥٨ ٦/٦٦ 56/75 53/33 15/4 10 8 301 15 دارويي سازگار با منطقه مهاجرت به ١٣/٣٣ ٥/٧٥ ١٣/٣٣ ١٨/٥٨ ٢٦/٦٦ ١٨/١١ ٤٦/٦٨ ٥٧/٥٦ 266 14 11 9 مناطق ديگر منبع : يافته هاي پژوهش 102 مقايسۀ نظرهاي کارشناسان دولتي و کشاورزان موفقيت برنامه و راهکارهاي تعديل اثرهاي تغيير اقليم و سـازگاري با آن ازجمله مواردي است که درهنگام اجرا با ترديد همراه اســت .