چکیده:
The objective of this paper is to explore the role of global financial crises in creating oil price shock affecting both importing and exporting countries of East and West Asia over 1980-2008. It also investigates the oil shock effect on trade relations among these countries during the period. Accordingly, we specify a demand export model including particularly two control variables of oil price shock and financial classes. The specified export model is estimated dynamically by a version of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach (ARDL) through using macroeconomic data of the Asian economies. The results obtained by this method are used to analyze for both long-run and short-run. Overall, the empirical results indicate that financial crisis and oil price have a significant interacted effect on trade flows of the Asian exporting countries in the short-run, while it is not applicable in the long-run. The implication is that financial crisis and oil shocks are two different incidents that occur separately and do not essentially affect each other.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Relationship between Financial Crisis and Oil Shock and its Effect on East-West Asia Trade Flows Seyed Komail Tayebi 1 Mehdi Yazdani 2 ( Received: 2011/04/09 Accepted: 2011/10/15 Abstract The objective of this paper is to explore the role of global financial crises in creating oil price shock affecting both importing and exporting countries of East and West Asia over 1980-2008.
Overall, the empirical results indicate that financial crisis and oil price have a significant interacted effect on trade flows of the Asian exporting countries in the short-run, while it is not applicable in the long-run.
g. Ronci 2004, Thomas 2009), this paper firstly explores the interaction between financial crisis and oil shocks and secondly uses an extended and dynamic export ARDL model to estimate such effect using macroeconomic data of the Asian countries: China, Japan, Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arab, South Korea and Turkey which are a part oil importing and a part oil exporting.
In order to analyze the long-run impact of the oil price and financial crisis index on trade flow, the normalized estimated coefficients of Equation (4) are reported in Table 2.
Empirical results indicate that the long-run movements in the world oil price have affected significantly and negatively export flows in Iran, Japan and Korea, while no effect we observe in other countries.
5- Conclusion In this paper we tested the hypothesis in which a cross relationship between financial crisis and the world oil price would affect Asian countries' trade flows.
Empirical results showed that the long-run movements in the world oil price affected significantly and negatively export flows of Iran, Japan and Korea, while no effect we observed for other countries in the sample."