چکیده:
T his study investigates the factors affecting the demand for new residential buildings in urban areas of Iran during 1976-2010. The demand function for new residential buildings in urban areas was estimated and then the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of this function was studied using the Bounds testing of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Co-integration procedure. The test confirmed a long-run relationship among the variables, so the coefficients of the short-term and long-term demand for new residential buildings were estimated. The results show that the average income of urban households has the biggest impact on the long-term demand of new residential buildings and its sign is positive. In the short-term, the biggest impact on the demand for new residential buildings is the average cost of constructing a residential building, with a negative impact on the demand.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Thedemand function for new residential buildings in urban areas was estimated and then the existence of a long-run relationship amongvariables of this function was studied using the Bounds testing of theAutoregressive Distributed Lag Co-integration procedure.
Pahlevanzade (1998) estimated an Ekanem demand function for housing in urban areas of Isfahan province using explanatory variables such as residential housing prices, urban household income, mortgage rate, number of marriages, and urban population.
251 It has been seen that among the examined variables, the coefficients related to the average income of urban households and the average cost of constructing a residential building at 10% level and the number of marriages at 1% level are significant in the long term and all three variables have a positive impact on the demand for new residential buildings.
78 All coefficients are significantly different from zero at the 10% level except the average land value of residential buildings and the real interest rate, so an increase in average urban household income and the number of marriages increase residential housing demand in the short-run.
Conclusions The present study uses the Bounds test for the ARDL approach in order to investigate a long-run relationship between new residential buildings demand, the average income of urban households, the average cost of constructing a residential building, the average land value of a residential building, the number of marriages in urban areas, and the real interest rate.