چکیده:
این مقاله به بررسی اهمیت تحقق آستانهی سود سال قبل از دیدگاه سرمایهگذاران در زمان اعلام سود میپردازد. هدف اصلی این مقاله پاسخ به این پرسش است که آیا بر مبنای نظریهی انتظارات، میتوان آستانهی سود سال قبل را به عنوان یکی از نقاط مرجع سرمایهگذاران در نظر گرفت. برای آزمون فرضیهها، نمونهای متشکل از 75 شرکت از بین شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در سالهای 1386 تا 1389 انتخاب و برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها، از مدل رگرسیون چندگانه به روش دادههای ترکیبی استفاده شد. نتایج آزمون فرضیهی اول پژوهش نشان داد آستانهی سود پیشبینی شده با بازده غیرعادی سهام رابطهی مستقیم دارد. نتایج آزمون فرضیهی دوم پژوهش نشان داد با کنترل سود پیشبینی شده، آستانهی سود سال قبل به عنوان یکی از نقاط مرجع سرمایهگذاران در تصمیمهای سرمایهگذاری مطرح نیست. به عبارت دیگر این پژوهش انگیزههای مبتنی بر بازار سرمایه، به عنوان محرک مدیریت سود پیرامون دستیابی به سود سال قبل را تایید نمیکند.
Introduction: Given the importance of earnings، it is no surprise that management has a vital interest in how they are reported or wanted to manage earnings. Dechow and Skinner (2000) recommend that researchers consider management’s capital market incentives to meet or beat simple earnings benchmarks، consisting of the following:
(1) to avoid losses، that is، to report earnings that are above zero;
(2) to avoid earnings decreases، that is، to make the earnings in the corresponding quarter of previous year; and
(3) to avoid negative earnings surprises، that is، to report earnings that meet or beat expectations.
The main purpose of this paper is investigating the importance of achieving last year’s earnings threshold.
Research Question: Prior research provides evidence that meeting (or beating) the forecasted earnings results in a differential market response compared to missing the forecast (e.g.، Sajadi، 1998; Khani، 2007). This paper extends prior research by examining whether there is a market effect for meeting or missing unexpected last year’s earnings thresholds while controlling the effects of meeting or missing the forecasted earnings.
Methods: To devise a proper test to see whether the market prices last year earnings threshold، it is important to identify the point at which the market should assign value for meeting or missing the threshold. For the vast majority of firms، reporting earnings above or below earnings increase threshold is not a surprise to the market at the time of the earnings announcement. Accordingly، two instances in which a firm’s announced earnings involve unexpectedly meeting or missing an earnings increase threshold after taking into consideration the effect of management forecasts،
1) Unexpected increase: firms that were forecasted to have a decrease in earnings that report an increase in earnings (UINCR).
2) Unexpected decrease; firms that were forecasted to have an increase in earnings that report a decrease in earnings (UDECR).
And four additional classifications for the expected thresholds consider:
1) Expected increase with positive earnings forecast errors; firms that were forecasted to have an increase in earnings that report an increase in earnings (EINCRFE+). For these firms actual earnings is greater than forecasted earnings.
2) Expected increase with negative earnings forecast errors; firms that were forecasted to have an increase in earnings that report an increase in earnings (EINCRFE-). For these firms forecasted earnings is greater than actual earnings.
3) Expected decrease with positive earnings forecast errors; firms that were forecasted to have a decrease in earnings that report a decrease in earnings (EDECRFE+). For these firms actual earnings is greater than forecasted earnings.
4) Expected decrease with negative earnings forecast errors; firms that were forecasted to have a decrease in earnings that report a decrease in earnings (EDECRFE-). For these firms forecasted earnings is greater than actual earnings.
This paper examines whether there is an incremental effect for unexpectedly meeting the increase threshold for firms already reporting a positive forecast error (UINCR). This can be examined by comparing the estimated coefficients of UINCR firms with those of EINCRFE+ and EDECRFE+ firms. Evidence of an incremental threshold effect for meeting the increase threshold would be found if the intercept or slope coefficient of UINCR firms is incrementally greater than those of EINCRFE+ and EDECRFE+ firms. A similar analysis is performed for the other group (UDECR، EINCRFE-، EDECRFE-). For data analysis، panel data were used and a sample consisting of 75 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2008 to 2011 were selected.
Results: Results showed earnings response coefficient (ERC) for UINCR firms is more positive than ERC for EDECRFE+ but less positive than ERC for EINCRFE+ firms. This result is not consistent with a market reward for meeting the earnings increase threshold. For missing the earnings increase threshold، the ERC for UDECR firms is greater than the ERC for EDECRFE− firms but less positive than ERC for EINCRFE− firms، respectively.
Once again، the results do not provide any evidence of an incremental threshold effect.
Discussion and conclusion: The results show that last year’s earnings threshold as one of the reference points is not considered in the decisions of investors. In other words، this research doesn’t support market-based incentives as a driver of earnings management on capital markets.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Keywords: Indices of performance evaluation Growth Rank performance TOPSIS Extended Abstract The Role of Ownership Structure in the Inventory and Cash Management Practices in the Companies Listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) Introduction The main goal of this paper is to provide a new empirical assessment of the ownership structure on the inventory and cash holdings of non-financial listed firms in Iran.
Keywords: Free Cash Flow Debt Policy ownership Structure Simultaneous Model JEL: G32 M41 M21 Extended Abstract Effect of Characteristics of Firms on Calculated Expected Return of Composite Implied Cost of Capital (CICC) Dr. D.
Research Questions or hypothesis The main purpose of this study is calculate the expected rate of returns for shareholders based on the method of Composite Implied Cost of Capital (CICC) and also reviews the effect of firm characteristics (Size book-to-market asset growth rate and financial leverage) on return mentioned.
Third Hypothesis: Due to obviate co-linearity between independent variables the sample was segregated based on privatization variable and the following model was used based on model3 in each sample: Lagit= β0 +β1Owconit+ β2BINit+ β3 Mowit+ β4Iowit+ β5AuDit+ β6Sizeit +β7 Growthit+ β8 CHlowit +εit Considering the insignificant level of 1 through 3 5 and 8 coefficients before and after privatization and negative and significant level of 4 after privatization it can be concluded that there is a positive and significant relationship between speed of financial reporting and institutional ownership in previously public companies."