چکیده:
In this study، a macro-economic model consisting of twelve behavioral equations and fourteen identity equations was estimated with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies set out in the fourth and fifth development plans. In the estimated model، the variables of development expenditures، current expenditures and tax revenues are used as fiscal policy tools and variables of liquidity and long-term interest rates of bank were used as monetary policy tools. The results of solving the model using a dynamic simulation showed that by the implementation of this scenario، one can achieve a steady growth rate for model’s endogenous variables during the period and reduce its deviation from target values. Then، a fuzzy control system was designed with the aim of minimizing deviations and changes in the deviation of non-oil GDP from the values determined in the fourth and fifth development plans. Liquidity variables and government development expenditures were used as control tools in this system. Results obtained from the fuzzy system showed that using control rules، the growth rate of liquidity can be put at a lower level and growth rate of development expenditure around quantified targeted values in the fourth and fifth development plans. Also، the oscillation amplitude of the inflation and growth rates of non-oil production can also be reduced.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Investigating the Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tools on Economic Growth Using Dynamic Simulation and Fuzzy Control Approach Sahar Motamedi*1, Mansour Zarra-Nezhad2 Received: 2016/04/09 Accepted: 2016/07/21 Abstract n this study, a macro-economic model consisting of twelve behavioralequations and fourteen identity equations was estimated with the aim of investigating the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies set out in the fourth and fifth development plans.
Given the importance of setting a consistent combination of monetary and fiscal policy as the most important demand-side policies that can put the economy on a path of long-term growth and development, in this study, using dynamic simulation the efficiency of quantitative targets for monetary and fiscal policies of the Fourth and Fifth Development plans is investigated during 2005-2016.
In addition, the quantitative amount of monetary and fiscal policy instruments were determined using fuzzy control, with the aim of minimizing the deviation of realized non-oil GDP out of targeted values in the fourth and fifth development plan.
Results of the optimal control showed that in the second, third and fourth development plans based on the use of different scenarios, it can be concluded that the determined optimal routes by policy-makers for monetary policy tools are more efficient than the determined optimal paths for fiscal policy tools and by guiding fiscal policy tools toward their desired values, one cannot achieve many other goals intended for other variables.