چکیده:
This article studies probable scenarios for the future of the Syrian crisis and that how they influence the national security and interest of Iran in the Middle East. These scenarios may include the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s government and the empowerment of extremists, reestablishment of Bashar Al-Assad’s control in Syria, and continuation of the war situation in Syria and disintegration of the country. In addition, the authors of this article propose a possible political solution as the prospective scenario for the Syrian crisis. In this respect, they believe that the security of Iran in the Middle East and in the long term will only be preserved by finding a comprehensive political solution to the Syrian crisis. Finally, the authors conclude that the realization of a political solution depends on the willpower of Bashar Al-Assad’s opponents and proponents on all the three internal, regional and international levels to put an end to the crisis. In this regard, the UN can play a useful role as a mediator of the various viewpoints of the concerned parties.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The Syrian Crisis and Iran’s National Security Ghasem Torabi* Mozhgan Mousavi** Abstract This article studies probable scenarios for the future of the Syrian crisis and that how they influence the national security and interest of Iran in the Middle East.
Keywords: Scenario Planning, Syrian Crisis, SyrianOpposition Groups, Regional States, Trans -regionalStates, Iran’s National Security *Ghasem Torabi is an associate professor of International Relations at the Hamedan Branch of the Islamic Azad University.
Answers to the possible scenario could be turning the Syrian crisis into a regional war, the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, and the empowerment of extremists, Bashar Al-Assad’s regaining for power, continuing war and continuation of the status quo, which will lead to the disintegration of the Syrian state, and finally a comprehensive political solution, are suggested as the probable scenarios in this article.
e. the downfall of Assad); 2) Iran, Iraq, and Lebanese Hezbollah (Al-Assad’s survival) against Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel (Al-Assad’s downfall or weakening); 3) Russia and China (proponents of Al-Assad’s government [dar inglisi "regime" yek ma’ni besiar manfi’ darad) against the United States, France, and England (proponents of Al-Assad’s weakening or downfall).
This policy included direct involvement in Syria, a media war and international campaign against Bashar Al-Assad’s government, as well as financial support and supplying weapons for anti- Assad opposition groups.
Conclusion We discussed several scenarios for the Syrian crisis including a regional war, Bashar Al-Assad’s fall and extremists’ empowerment, full regain of control by the government of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, the continuity of crisis which will lead to the disintegration of the Syrian state, and a political solution.