چکیده:
هدف از پژوهش حاضر برنامهریزی توسعة منطقهای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد بر پایةروش آیندهپژوهی تحلیل اثرهایمتقاطع و سناریونویسی سایب است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها از نرمافزارهای آیندهپژوهیMicmac و سناریونویسی Scenario Wizard مبتنی بر روش طوفان فکری و انگیزش ذهنی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان داد نُه پیشران کلیدی ازجمله سرمایهگذاری، گردشگری، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص و خبره، منابع آب، شبکةراهها، امنیت سرمایهگذاری، محصولات زراعی و کشاورزی، زیربناهای روستایی،و اشتغال از میان 32 عامل شناساییشده بیشترین تأثیر را در رشد و توسعة آیندة استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد دارد. همچنین، شاخص تحقیق و توسعه، بهعنوان عامل تنظیمکننده،از میان عوامل تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر رشد و توسعة استان درنظر گرفته شد. همچنین، برای ترسیم چشمانداز توسعة منطقهای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، پیشرانهای کلیدی بهعنوان عوامل پایه و اصلی در سناریونویسی در ادامه استفاده شدند. درواقع،مجموعه وضعیتهای محتمل این عوامل بهشکلی شفاف راهبردها و استراتژیهای کلیدی و سیاستگذاری را برای مدیران معین میکند. درنهایت، با تدوین 112 وضعیت، 14 سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان درنظر گرفته شد که 5/12درصد از وضعیتها دارای حالت بحرانیاند، 75/18درصد در حالت ایستا و75/68درصد در شرایط مطلوباند. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مطلوبترین سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان مبتنی بر استفاده از نخبگان و متخصصان داخل استان، رشد گردشگری طبیعی، توسعة حملونقل ریلی، توجه به اشتغالزایی، توسعة زیربناهای روستایی و مشوقهای سرمایهگذاری و امنیت، توسعة محصولات باغی، و درنهایت مدیریت بهینه و پایدار آب است.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.
خلاصه ماشینی:
بنابراين ، تمرکز اصلي اين پژوهش بر شناخت متغيرها و قابليت هاي کليدي توسعۀ استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد و شناسايي و تدوين سناريوهاي مطلوب براي توسعۀ آيندة استان است .
از اين رو، اهداف پژوهش حاضر را ميتوان مشتمل بر موارد زير دانست : ـ شناسايي متغيرهاي راهبردي به عنوان پيشران هاي کليدي توسعۀ استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد در آينده ؛ ـ شناسايي اصليترين قابليت هاي راهبردي توسعۀ استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد؛ ـ تدوين و طراحي سناريوهاي محتمل مبتني بر توسعه و رشد مطلوب استان در آينده .
شيوة امتيازدهيدرCIB (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) بدين منظور، در اين تحقيق براي هشت پيشران کليدي ٢٤ وضعيت ممکن و محتمل تعريف شد و در قالب ماتريس تأثيرات متقابل به ابعاد ٢٤×٢٤ در اختيار بيست خبره و متخصص قرار گرفت و، با استفاده از قابليت هاي نرم افزار سناريوي ويزارد، چهارده سناريو استخراج شد.
با توجه به مباحث مطرح شده و براساس وضعيت هاي احتمالي آيندة پيش روي توسعۀ استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد به طور کلي ٢٤ وضعيت براي هشت پيشران کليدي طراحي شد که اين وضعيت ها به صورت طيفي از وضعيت مطلوب تا وضعيت محتمل را شامل ميشود.
وضعيت هاي مطلوب و ممکن به اين صورت است که اگر وضعيت B١ از پيشران B در آيندة توسعۀ استان کهگيلويه و بويراحمد تأثيرگذار باشد، چه اثرگذاري بر روند توسعه يا روند توسعۀ منفي در وضعيت A از وضعيت A١ خواهد داشت .