چکیده:
پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارائه مدلی ترکیبی آیندهنگاری منابع انسانی بخش دولتی انجام شده است. تحقیق از لحاظ هدف توسعهای و از نظر نحوه جمعآوری دادهها توصیفی و از نظر روش تحقیق، آمیخته میباشد. جامعه آماری پژوهش خبرگان و متخصصین موضوع بوده و برای تعیین حجم نمونه در بخش کیفی پژوهش از معیار اشباع نظری و روش نمونهگیری گلوله برفی استفاده گردید. برای تعیین روایی متغیرهای مدل نیز از تعداد 38 نفر از اعضای جامعه آماری به صورت نمونهگیری در دسترس نظرخواهی به عمل آمد. برای تحلیل دادههای کیفی از روش تحلیل تم و برای روایی مدل از روایی محتوا استفاده شد. ابزار جمعآوری دادههای کیفی مصاحبه و پنل خبرگان و برای تعیین روایی مدل از پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. مدل نهایی ارائه شده، یک مدل ترکیبی است که در آن نظام منابع انسانی بخش دولتی دارای سه بعد ترکیب، رفتار و زمینه (کلان و سازمانی) میباشد که با همدیگر در تعامل بوده و برای درک راهبردی از آینده، بایستی تعاملات بین آنها مورد بررسی قرار گیرد و تعیین پیشرانها و آیندهنگاری بر این اساس صورت پذیرد.
Abstract The aim of this study was to provide a mixed model for human resource foresight in the public sector. The research purpose is evolutionary, the data collection method is descriptive and research method is mixed method. The statistical population of the study were experts. The sample size in the qualitative part of the research was surveyed by using theoretical saturation criterion and snowball sampling method. To determine the validity of the variables of model, 38 members of the statistical population were consulted as available sampling. The analysis of theme was used to analyze the qualitative data and Content validity was used to determine the validity of the model. Interviews and expert panel were tools of collecting qualitative data. To determine the validity of the model, a questionnaire was used. The presented final model is a mixed model in which the public sector human resource system has three dimensions: composition, behavior and context (macro and organizational). These dimensions interact with each other. Having a strategic understanding about future, needs attention to this interaction and this interaction should be considered in foresight process. Introduction Environmental rapid changes cause "human resources planning" as an important and challenging task in organizations development process. This task involves plans for future personnel needs, their needed skills, recruitment and staff development (Kumaran, 2010). One of the key problems of planning relates to developing accurate predictions in an unstable environment. The inability in accurate prediction of problems and the inadequacy of traditional forecasting methods based programs have forced decision makers to use futures study and foresight principles in planning processes. Thus, human resource foresight can be an effective way of looking at possible and probable futures, determining the desirable future, and providing the necessary solutions to cope with the challenges associated with human resources in the future. Due to shortages of current planning approaches and methods to deal with rapid changes and uncertainties, the main problem of this research is how to plan to provide appropriate human resources in the public sector of country, given the changing conditions and future uncertainties, and how to use foresight approaches in better human resource managing in the future and developing more appropriate strategies and policies in this area. The main question of the research is: "Given the changing conditions and different futures, what kind of model can be used to determine the quantitative and qualitative composition of human resources in the public sector?" Case study The public sector of Islamic Republic of Iran was the case of this study. Materials and Methods This study is developmental in terms of purpose and is descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The research method is a mixed method. In this study, literature review and field studies were used for data collection. Due to the research method of this research, which is a mixed method, as well as various steps were taken during the research to collect data and information, in each step, the appropriate tool was used for that step and based on the used resources. The statistical population of this study was the experts and snowball sampling was used to select the interviewees and respondents. Theoretical saturation criterion was used to determine the sample size. Accordingly, 38 experts were employed. After the interviews, the panel of experts was used as a complementary process to complete the variables. Discussion and Results In the proposed model, the proposed drivers were determined by study the interactions between the system and its environment (organizational environment and macro environment). Accordingly, the HR system of the administrative system has three dimensions, structure (elements related to the hard dimensions of the HR system and mainly including the demographic dimensions of HR), behavior (elements related to the soft dimensions of the system, including knowledge, learning, motivation, trust, …), and context (macro and organizational) as the determinants of the driving forces of the future HR system, interacting with each other, and for getting a comprehensive and strategic perception about the future, the interactions between them should be examined and analyzed. Conclusion In this research, using different tools at different stages, expert opinions of the subject were exploited and the model was formulated. The final model, called the "Ball bearing Model", is a mixed model and can be used as a model for future public sector human resource planning projects at the macro level. The overall model can also be used at the micro level and even in private sector organizations and companies. In the present model, human resources of the administrative system have three dimensions, structure, behavior and context (macro and organizational context). In order to have a comprehensive and strategic perception of the future, the interactions between these three dimensions should be analyzed. In this model, the process of human resource foresight project is categorized in five steps: pre-foresight, inputs determining, foresight, strategies and plans formulation, and review. In addition, the required actions for each step are specified.
خلاصه ماشینی:
مدل نهايي ارائه شده ، يک مدل ترکيبي است که در آن نظام منابع انساني بخش دولتي داراي سه بعد ترکيب ، رفتار و زمينه )کلان و سازماني( ميباشد که با همديگر در تعامل بوده و براي درک راهبردي از آينده ، بايستي تعاملات بين آنها مورد بررسي قرار گيرد و تعيين پيشران ها و آينده نگاري بر اين اساس صورت پذيرد.
بدين ترتيب ، سوال اصلي تحقيق عبارتست از اينکه »با توجه به شرايط متغير و آينده هاي مختلف ، از چه الگويي ميتوان براي تعيين ترکيب کمي وکيفي منابع انساني بخش دولتي استفاده کرد؟« پيشينه تحقيق مديريت و برنامه ريزي راهبردي منابع انساني اجراي درست راهبردهاي سازمان نيازمند تعيين تکليف دو بعد اساسي در حوزه منابع انساني است .
برنامه ريزي منابع انساني ، الزامات پرسنلي آينده سازمان را پيش بيني ميکند )٢٠١٠ ,Kumaran( و فرايندي است که تعيين ميکند سازمان براي تحقق هدف هاي خود به چه تعداد افراد، با چه توانمنديهايي، براي چه مشاغلي و در چه زماني نياز دارد.
آينده نگاري 1-Wu 2-Church 3-Fayol 4-Science and Practice of Management 5-Slaughter توانايي پيش بيني آينده نيست ؛ بلکه به ما اجازه ميدهد تا مسيرهاي مختلف فعاليت ها را ارزيابي کنيم و آينده هاي مختلف را همراه واقعيت هاي کافي ايجاد کنيم و نيز به معناي استفاده از آنها در تصميم گيري است )٢٠١٦ ,Maclean &Sarpong (.
1-Systemic Foresight Methodology )SFM( براي فرايند آينده نگاري نيز مراحل و گام هاي مختلفي توسط صاحب نظران در چارچوب - هاي خود ارائه شده است .