چکیده:
این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تغییرات تبخیر تعرق و پیشنگری بخش کشاورزی در قسمت شمالی استان ایستگاه زاهدان، قسمت مرکزی ایستگاه ایرانشهر و قسمت جنوبی ایستگاه چابهار با در نظر گرفتن تغییر اقلیم انجام شد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ در ﺗﺎرﻳﺦ ﻛﺎﺷﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ اﺛـﺮات ﻣﻨﻔـﻲ اﻳﻦ ﭘﺪﻳﺪه ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﺷﺪ. ﭘﺲ از راست آزمایی ﻣـﺪل LARS-WG، ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎی اﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ در سه اﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ زاﻫﺪان، اﻳﺮاﻧﺸﻬﺮ، ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر و ﺗﺤـﺖ ﺳـﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮی A1B، A2 و B1 در ﻣﺪل HadCM3 ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎل 2060 با دوره پایه 1987-2020رﻳﺰﻣﻘﻴﺎس ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻣﺎرهﻫﺎی ﺟﺬر ﻣﻴـﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺧﻄﺎ و ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻛﺎرآﻳﻲ ﻣﺪل، ﻣﺪل LARS-WG از ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ خوبی در ﺷﺒﻴﻪﺳـﺎزی ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎی دﻣﺎی ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ و ﺣﺪاﻛﺜﺮ و ﺑﺎرش ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﺑﻮد. اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﻣﻌﻨﻲدار دﻣﺎ، ﻃﻮل دوره ی رﺷﺪ در ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ را ﺑﻴﻦ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺎ ٢٠ روز ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ اﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﺎﻋـﺚ افزایش ﻧﻴﺎز آﺑﻲ ﮔﻨﺪم ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ. اﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ اﻧﺪاﺧﺘﻦ زﻣﺎن ﻛﺎﺷﺖ، اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮاﻗﻠﻴﻢ را ﺷﺪت ﺑﺨﺸﻴﺪه و ﻃﻮل ﻓﺼﻞ ﻛﺸﺖ را ﺑﻴﻦ 12 ﺗﺎ 23 روز ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ، ﻟﻜﻦ ﻧﻴﺎز آﺑﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ یافت. با توجه به این شرایط اقلیمی برای دورههای آتی، ﻛﺸﺎورزان ﻗﺎدر ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺷﺮاﻳﻂ اﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ را ﻛﻨﺘﺮل ﻛﻨﻨﺪ، وﻟﻲ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ درﺳﺖ و ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ در ﻋﻮاﻣﻠﻲ ﭼﻮن رﻗﻢ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل و ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺳﺎزی اﻟﮕﻮی ﻛﺸﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺎ اﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ و آگاهی یافتن از شرایط اقلیمی حال و آینده، ﻣﻲﺗﻮاﻧﺪ در ﻛﺎﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﻣﻀﺮ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ اﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻛﺸﺎورزی و ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭘﺎﻳﺪار ﻣﻮاد ﻏﺬاﻳﻲ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺑﺴﺰاﻳﻲ داﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﻳﺰی و ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ منابع ﮔﺎم مهم به سمت توسعه پایدار است.
The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in evapotranspiration and to predict the agricultural sector in the northern part of Zahedan station, the central part of Iranshahr station and the southern part of Chabahar station, taking into account climate change. Also, the effect of management on planting date on reducing the negative effects of this phenomenon was investigated.
After testing the LARS-WG model, the climatic components in three meteorological stations of Zahedan, Iranshahr, Chabahar and under three scenarios A2, A1B and B1 in HadCM3 model until 2060 with the base period of 1987-2020 were scaled. Based on the root mean square error statistics and model efficiency coefficient, the LARS - WG model had sufficient capability in simulating minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation parameters. Significant increase in temperature reduces the length of the growing period in different stages between one to 20 days, which will reduce the water requirement of wheat between 4. 45-0. 05. Although postponing the planting time intensifies the effect of climate change and reduces the length of the growing season by 10 to 23 days, it will increase the water requirement between 1. 29 and 774 cubic meters per hectare. Due to these climatic conditions for future periods, farmers are not able to control the climatic conditions, but proper management and change in factors such as crop yield and optimization of cultivation pattern in accordance with the climate of the region and awareness of current and future climatic conditions. It can play an important role in reducing the harmful effects of climate change on the growth and yield of agricultural products and sustainable food production, and comprehensive planning and resource management is an important step towards sustainable development.