چکیده:
Exchange rates are subject to large and frequent fluctuations in mean and variances making it very difficult to model and forecast. In this paper, a series of tests for nonlinearity and chaos in exchange rates is conducted using the daily data on the market rates in Iran for the period 1991-2005. The tests for nonlinearity are BDS and ANN tests, and the tests for chaos are autocorrelation and Lyapunov exponents. The tests results suggest that the exchange rates and their rates of change follow complex nonlinear and stochastic processes. In the second part of the paper, an ANN model is designed to forecast the exchange rates. The results show that ANN outperforms both ARIMA and GARCH models in forecasting the exchange rates, but generates the same results as the alternative models in forecasting the rate of change of the exchange rates.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"These include: Personal Characteristics and Human Capital (such as the age of the management team or entrepreneur, and their education, gender, skill and years of experience) Organizational Strategy (using bank finance to start up, a business focus on a specific type of customer or market and product differentiation, for example) External Environment (availability of external finance, access to foreign markets and local services and support for SMEs) Firm Characteristics (size, age and ownership, for example) Industry Characteristics (minimum efficient scale, entry rate and concentration ratio) - For further discussion, see Disney, R.
We measure barriers to entry (BARR) by the share of research and development and advertisement expenditures in total inputs, as follows (see Table 3), where INPUT (not shown in the table) measures the total value of inputs to the plant 1 : (5 Table 3: Explanatory Variables Using in the Survival Analyses Variable Description Min. Max.
The other variables - the growth of an industry (GROW), the minimum efficient scale (MES) and the barriers to entry (BARR) - do not appear to influence the probability of SME plant survival.
00 7- Conclusions This paper has examined the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing industries in Iran over the period 1994/95-98/99.
Fourth, in the case of industry-related variables, the concentration ratio has a negative effect but the entry rate has a positive effect on SME plants survival."