چکیده:
درک روستائیان از زندگی بهتر با مشاهده موفقیت سایر مردم و امید به برابر سازی آن، تغییر می کند . آنان می دانند که تحصیلات دانشگاهی منجر به کسب درآمد انتظاری بالاتری می شود. در حقیقیت شهرنشینی دارای منافعی می باشد، لیکن هزینه های آن (آلودگی، شلوغی و جرم) در کشورهای در حال توسعه فراگیر می باشد. به منظور درک بهتر مساله و بررسی سیاست های کنترل کننده این اثرات خارجی منفی، مطالعه و تحلیل عوامل موثر بر مهاجرت از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار می باشد. بنابراین، در این مطالعه ما به بررسی این مهم با تاکید بر اثر سطح سواد روستائیان بر تابع مهاجرت روستا- شهر ایران با استفاده از مدل خودرگرسیو با وقفه های گسترده (ARDL) و داده های سری زمانی مربوط به سال های 1384-1338 پرداختیم. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت سطح سواد روستائیان دارای بیشترین اثر بر روی این تابع می باشد. همچنین 1 درصد افزایش در دستمزدهای روستایی، دستمزدهای شهری، ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی و سطح سواد روستائیان می تواند تعداد مهاجران را به ترتیب 25/0 درصد کاهش، 32/0 درصد افزایش، 16/0 درصد کاهش و 32/0 درصد افزایش دهد.
Rural inhabitants’ perception of better life changes when observing the success of other people، and hope to emulate their success. They know that University degree can lead to a higher expected income. In fact urbanism has some benefits but the costs (pollution، congestion، and crime) are also pervasive in developing countries. In order to better understand the problem، and examine policy measures for controlling its negative externalities، it is of importance to study and analyze the factors which may affect migration. Therefore، in this study we investigated this important issue with emphasis on the effect of rural literacy level on rural-urban migration by using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model utilizing time-series data related to the years 1959-2005 in Iran. Results indicate that in long term، rural literacy level has the most effect on this function. It was also found that، 1% increase in rural wage، urban wage، rural value added and rural literacy level can cause 0.25% decrease، 0.32% increase، 0.16% decrease and 0.32% increase in migrant’s number، respectively.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Therefore, in this study we investigated thisimportant issue with emphasis on the effect of rural literacy levelon rural-urban migration by using an Auto-RegressiveDistributed Lag (ARDL) model utilizing time-series data relatedto the years 1959-2005 in Iran.
Therefore, in order to better understand the problem, and consider policy measures for controlling some of the negative externalities of rural-urban migration, it is of a significant importance to study and analyze the migration function and factors affecting it.
They also indicated that increase in the level of investment in agricultural section can have a restrictive effect on migration process, by reducing the ratio of urban-rural income.
Then they estimated the migration function according to variables like ratio of urban-rural income, age structure and agriculture production in Senegal.
The results indicated that the population growth rate and the actual per capita income in rural regions during the studied period have a positive and significant correlation with rural Gini coefficient.
Annual Ratio of migration in urban population (At 1000 persons) / Source: Research Findings By using the coefficients of ARDL dynamic model, which is presented in table (1), the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables was tested.
99 Source: Research Findings According to the obtained results from table2, in long-term, all variables except urban value added have significant effect on migration.
Results of estimated long-term coefficients indicated that in long term, rural literacy level has the most effect on Iranian rural-urban migration and all variables except urban value added have significant effect on migration as well."