چکیده:
In order to study energy consumption in Iran's agricultural sector, a Genetic algorithm concept was used to calculate significant factors affecting energy consumption between 1974 and 2008. Then, durability or "stability" of variables was assessed through econometric method (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test). In addition, long-term and short-term relationships of energy consumption were estimated using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results of this study reveal that intensity of energy consumption variables in agricultural sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are of great importance and have a considerable impact on energy consumption in agricultural sector of Iran. Therefore, these factors can be beneficial for policies of energy consumption conservation in agriculture sector.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"According to a combined error correction model and using data from 1971 to 2002, they showed that there was a two-sided long-term and short-term causality relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in developed exporting countries.
Based on Juselius and Johansen Co-Test within the framework of Vector Auto-Regressive Model, Zibaii and Tarazkar (2004) studied long-term and short-term relationships between value added and energy consumption in agricultural sector of Iran from 1967 to 2000.
To obtain figures reflecting demand for oil by-products, electricity and natural gas, he estimated three distinct models; GDP, quantity of the mentioned energy and price of that energy carrier were considered as endogenous variables.
Figure 2: Estimation of demand functions by genetic algorithms In the next section, energy consumption will be examined in Iran's agricultural sector using genetic algorithm and VECM techniques.
Table 1: Results of genetic algorithm about variables affecting energy consumption in agricultural sector Importance Coefficient Variable 0.
Since studied variables are highly explanatory, Vector Error Correction Model can be easily used to forecast and to study the factors affecting energy consumption in agricultural sector.
3. 1 Estimated Results of VEC Model The VEC Model is: (7) Energy intensity, which reflects the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP and is expressed in Rials per barrel of crude oil according to local prices, has a significant influence on energy consumption in agricultural sector.
Energy consumption function has been estimated in Iran agriculture sector using genetic algorithm which is shown by this equation (8)."