خلاصه ماشینی:
"(2005), using a multi-factor regression model, observed that the stocks of energy sectors are affected, positively, by changes in oil price and negatively by the US$ exchange rate.
Farzanegan and Markwardt (2009) used a vector autoregressive model and data collected in post Iran-Iraq war period to analyze the relationship between oil price shocks and the Iranian economy.
Foster and Kharazi (2008) applied several statistical models, using weekly data collected from September 29, 1997 to November 18, 2002, to study the correlation between weekly returns of Tehran stock index and oil price.
Keshavarz and Manavi (2009) employed a vector autoregressive model along with Granger causality test to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on the TSE and exchange rate using daily data collected from 27 March 1999 to 17 October 2006.
They used Pesaran's approach to evaluate the ARDL model and concluded that the ratio of domestic to foreign price levels, housing, gold coin and oil price had positive impacts on the stock price, while exchange rate and money supply had negative impact, see: Pesaran and Shin, 1999 for more details on Pesaran's method.
/ Figure 1: This figure shows the co-movement of log-transformed price of oil (solid line), gold (dot line), and stock index (dash line) (Source of Data: http://www.
The objective of this research is to understand the structure of the impact of oil and gold price on the TSE and use the model to forecast the stock index."